تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر ناپایداری جمعیت سکونتگاه‌های روستایی (مورد مطالعه: استان کردستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد گروه جغرافیای انسانی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

3 استاد گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

4 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران

چکیده

 بررسی تحولات جمعیت روستایی استان کردستان در شش دهه اخیر نشان می‌دهد که روستاهای این استان همواره روند غالب ناپایداری جمعیتی را طی کرده‌اند. بر این اساس، هدف پژوهش کاربردی حاضر شناسایی مهم‌ترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر این پدیده در مناطق روستایی و روش آن نیز توصیفی- تحلیلی با رویکرد پیمایشی بود. بدین منظور، نخست، با محاسبه نرخ رشد جمعیت در طول سه دهه از سال 1365 تا 1395، طبقه‌بندی شهرستان‌های مورد مطالعه در سه طبقه (ناپایدار، نسبتاً پایدار، پایدار) صورت گرفت و در مجموع، 23 روستا به‌‎عنوان روستاهای نمونه از هر سه طبقه انتخاب شدند؛ سپس، با استفاده رابطه کوکران، 264 خانوار با روش نمونه‌گیری خوشه‌ای و طبقه‌بندی‌شده در تابستان و پاییز 1398 به‌عنوان حجم نمونه انتخاب شدند. توزیع فضایی پایداری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی با استفاده از نرم‌افزار GIS در منطقه مورد مطالعه نشان داد که به لحاظ جمعیتی، وضعیت 56 دهستان ناپایدار، 23 دهستان نسبتاً ناپایدار و شش دهستان پایدار است. نتایج رگرسیون گام به گام نیز نشان داد که در تأثیرگذاری بر ناپایداری جمعیت سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در منطقه مورد مطالعه، عوامل اقتصادی، کالبدی، محیطی و اجتماعی، به‌ترتیب، با ضرایب بتای 511/0، 478/0، 363/0 و 218/0، در رتبه‌های اول تا چهارم قرار دارند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Factors Affecting Population Unsustainability in Rural Settlements: A Case Study of Kurdistan Province of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • M.R. Rezvani 1
  • F. Ahmadi 2
  • M. Taleshi 3
  • S.M. Musa-Kazemi 4
1 Professor, Department of Human Geography, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
2 Researcher ExpertPhD Student in Geography and Rural Planning, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Geography, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
4 Associate Professor, Department of Geography, Payame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Studying the rural population developments in Kurdistan province of Iran in the last six decades shows that the villages of this province have always been in a downward trend. Accordingly, the present study aimed at determining the most important factors affecting this phenomenon in the studied villages. It was a descriptive-analytical research with a survey approach. For this purpose, the population growth rate was firstly calculated over three decades from 1986 to 2016; and the studied counties were categorized into three classes (unsustainable, relatively sustainable, and sustainable); then, there were selected a total of 23 villages as sample villages and also 264 households as sample size using Cochran formula in a cluster classified sampling method in summer and autumn of 2019. The spatial distribution of sustainability of rural settlements using the GIS software in the studied area indicated the condition of 56 villages as unsustainable, 23 as relatively unsustainable and 6 villages as sustainable. The results of multivariate regression showed that in terms of influencing the unsustainability of the population of rural settlements in the studied area, the economic, physical, environmental and social factors were in the first to fourth ranks, with beta coefficients of 0.511, 0.478, 0.363 and 0.218, respectively.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Population Unsustainability
  • rural settlements
  • Rural Migrations
  • Kurdistan (Province)
  • Iran
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