ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی: مطالعه موردی روستاهای استان قزوین

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.

2 دانش‌آموخته دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران.

چکیده

عملیاتی شدن اهداف مدیریت ریسک زلزله در عرصه‌های فضایی روستایی مستلزم داشتن فرآیند و الگوی مطلوب مدیریت است. از این­رو، پژوهش حاضر  با هدف ارائه الگوی مطلوب مدیریت ریسک مخاطرات طبیعی (زلزله) در مناطق روستایی و با استفاده از مدل‌های ریاضی، برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت راهبردی (SMP) و برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت راهبردی کمی (QSMP) انجام شد. روش تحقیق از نوع توصیفی‌ـ کاربردی و شیوۀ جمع‌آوری اطلاعات نیز به دو صورت کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی بود. نخست، به‌منظور رتبه‌بندی ریسک آسیب‌پذیری منطقه مورد مطالعه، نوزده شاخص مناسب (همچون کیفیت مساکن، قدمت ساختمان‌ها، تراکم جمعیت، بزرگای زلزله) شناسایی و وزن‏دهی شدند و با گردآوری آمار و اطلاعات آنها، تحلیل داده‌ها صورت گرفت. سپس، دیدگاه پاسخ‏گویان شامل ۳۸۶ نفر از سرپرستان خانوارهای روستایی و ۲۹ نفر از اعضای نهادهای محلی در 29 روستای نمونه شهرستان منتخب از استان قزوین و همچنین، دیدگاه پانزده متخصص در زمینه مدیریت زلزله و برنامه‌ریزی برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری، با بهره‌گیری از ۶۹ گویه در قالب پرسشنامه، دریافت، توصیف و تحلیل شد. نتایج تحقیق نشان داد که الگوی مطلوب یکپارچه و پایدار مدیریت ریسک زلزله در مناطق روستایی (با اختصاص صد درصد امتیاز) مشتمل بر سه مرحله قبل (ارزیابی، پیشگیری و کاهش) با کسب پنجاه درصد، حین (پاسخ اضطراری و بازتوانی اولیه و ارزیابی) با ۲۱ درصد و بعد (بازسازی و پاکسازی، بازتوانی و ارزیابی) با ۲۹ درصد از کل امتیازات است. سرانجام، شناخت و ارتقای مؤلفه‌های مبنایی مدیریت ریسک زلزله به‌عنوان عناصر کلیدی در هر کدام از مراحل مدیریت ریسک زلزله مورد تأکید قرار گرفت.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Presetting a Desirable Pattern of Natural Hazard Risk Management (Earthquake) in Rural Areas: A Case Study of Villages in Qazvin Province of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Parishan 1
  • L. Dayyani 2
1 Assistant Professor of Geography, Payame Noor University (PNU), Tehran, Iran
2 PhD Graduate in Geography and Rural Planning, Tarbiat Modares University (TMU), Tehran, Iran.
چکیده [English]

The operationalization of earthquake risk management objectives in rural areas requires a desirable management process and pattern. Therefore, this study aimed to desirable pattern of natural hazard risk management (earthquake) in rural areas using mathematical models, strategic management planning (SMP) and quantitative strategic management planning (QSMP). It was a descriptive and applied research, the required information of which were collected in both library and field methods. Initially, 19 appropriate indicators (such as housings quality, buildings age, population density, earthquake magnitude) were identified and weighted to rank the risks of vulnerability in the studied area and the data were analyzed after collecting their statistics and information. Then, the perspectives of respondents including 386 household members and 29 individuals from the local institutions (rural council and administrator) in 29 sample villages from a selected county in Qazvin province of Iran as well as the views of 15 specialists on management of earthquake risk and planning to reduce vulnerability were received, described and analyzed through 69 items within a questionnaire. The results showed that the desired integrated and sustainable pattern of earthquake risk management in the rural areas (with 100 percent allocation of scores) consisted of three stages including before (evaluation, prevention and reduction) with 50 percent, during (emergency response and initial rehabilitation and evaluation) with 21 percent and after (reconstruction and cleaning, rehabilitation and evaluation) with 29 percent of the total scores. Finally, understanding and promoting the basic components of earthquake risk management as key elements in each stage of earthquake risk management were emphasized.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Sustainable development
  • Risk Management
  • Earthquake
  • rural areas
  • Qazvin (Province)
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