بررسی رابطه علیت بین فقر و مهاجرت از روستا به شهر در ایران

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه توسعه و اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

4 استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شهیدباهنر کرمان، کرمان، ایران.

چکیده

با توجه به ارتباط نزدیک بین فقر و مهاجرت از روستا به شهر در ایران، تعیین کم و کیف رابطه­ بین این دو متغیر می‌تواند به تبیین سیاست­های توسعه بخش روستایی و شهری کمک مؤثری کند. از این‏رو، در تحقیق حاضر، با استفاده از دو روش تودا و یاماموتو و آزمون کرانه‌ها، رابطه علیت بین فقر و مهاجرت از روستا به شهر در ایران با بهره گیری از داده‌های جمعیت و نرخ رشد طبیعی آن، درصد افراد فقیر و ضریب جینی طی سال­های 1392-1364 بررسی شد. نتایج آزمون‌های علیت با استفاده از هر دو روش نشان داد که مهاجرت و فقر رابطه دوسویه دارند؛ فقر خانوارهای روستایی باعث مهاجرت از روستا به شهر می­شود و مهاجرت نیز می‌تواند موجب کاهش فقر روستایی شود.بنابراین، دولت می‌تواند با تخصیص اعتبارات مطابق با وضعیت مهاجران از جمله ارتقای وضعیت مشاغل غیررسمی در شهرها و روستاها، فقر آنها را کاهش دهد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Study of Causal Relationship between Poverty and Migration from Rural to Urban Areas in Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • S. Esfandiari 1
  • M. Dehghani Dashtabi 2
  • S. Nabieyan 3
  • H.R. Mirzaei Khalilaabad 4
1 PhD Student in Agricultural Economics, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 MSc. Student in Development and Agricultural Economics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
4 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Economics, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran.
چکیده [English]

Since there is a close relationship between poverty and migration from rural to urban areas in Iran, determining the quality and quantity of the relationship between these two variables can effectively help to explain the rural and urban development policies. Therefore, this study aimed at investigating this relationship using both Toda-Yamamoto (TY) and Bounds tests as well as the data of population and its natural growth rate, the percentage of poor people, and Gini coefficient during 1985-2913. The results of both causality tests showed that migration and poverty were closely linked and had a two way relation; in addition, the rural poverty could be the cause of migration from the rural to urban areas, and the migration could also lead to rural poverty alleviation. In other words, the migration leads to poverty mitigation in the rural area. Therefore, the government can improve the allocation of funds in accordance with the situation of migrants, including informal jobs.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Poverty
  • Immigration
  • Toda-Yamamoto (TY) Test
  • Bounds Test
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