روستا و توسعه

روستا و توسعه

تحلیل ظرفیت رویارویی کشاورزان در برابر مخاطرات خشکسالی و سرمازدگی (منطقه مورد مطالعه: روستاهای بخش سرولایت شهرستان نیشابور)

مقالات آماده انتشار

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محمد رحیمی 1
طاهره صادقلو 2
حمید شایان 3
1 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد رشته جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
3 استاد گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.
10.30490/rvt.2026.367670.1756
چکیده
بخش کشاورزی به عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین ارکان امنیت غذایی و اقتصادی کشور، همواره در معرض تهدید مخاطرات اقلیمی از جمله خشکسالی و سرمازدگی قرار دارد. این دو پدیده با کاهش عملکرد محصولات، از بین رفتن منابع تولید و افزایش آسیب‌پذیری کشاورزان، چالشی جدی برای پایداری معیشت روستایی ایجاد کرده‌اند. در چنین شرایطی، چگونگی رویارویی کشاورزان، نقشی اساسی در کاهش خسارات و تداوم فعالیت‌های کشاورزی دارد. پژوهش حاضر با هدف سنجش ظرفیت رویارویی کشاورزان در برابر خشکسالی و سرمازدگی در بخش سرولایت شهرستان نیشابور انجام گرفته است. این تحقیق از نوع توصیفی–تحلیلی بوده و به روش پیمایشی صورت پذیرفته است. جامعه آماری شامل تمامی کشاورزان بخش سرولایت شهرستان نیشابور بوده که بر اساس فرمول کوکران، ۲۲۴ نفر به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها پرسش‌نامه محقق‌ساخته بود که روایی و پایایی آن با روش‌های علمی تأیید گردید. داده‌ها با استفاده از نرم‌افزار SPSS مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفتند. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان داد که میانگین ظرفیت رویارویی کشاورزان در برابر خشکسالی و سرمازدگی کمتر از حد متوسط است. بین ویژگی‌های فردی کشاورزان و ظرفیت رویارویی آنان در برابر خشکسالی و سرمازدگی رابطه‌ای مثبت و معنادار وجود دارد به طوری که ادراک خطر بیشترین تأثیر را بر افزایش ظرفیت رویارویی دارد. همچنین نتایج آزمون‌های تحلیل واریانس بین گروههای مختلف کشاورزان بیانگر این واقعیت است که بین متغیرهایی مانند تحصیلات، سن، درآمد، سابقه کشاورزی و وسعت اراضی نیز با افزایش ظرفیت رویارویی ارتباط مثبت و معناداری وجود دارد. همچنین براساس آزمون رگرسیون انجام شده، ادراک خطرات خشکسالی و سرمازدگی بر ظرفیت رویارویی کشاورزان با این مخاطرات تاثیر قابل توجهی دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
خشکسالی
سرمازدگی
ظرفیت رویارویی
کشاورزان
بخش سرولایت
شهرستان نیشابور
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Analysis of Farmers' Coping Capacity Against Drought and Frost Hazards (Study Area: Villages of Sarvelayat District, Neyshabur County)

نویسندگان English

M. Rahimi 1
T. Sadeghloo 2
H. Shayan 3
1 Master's Student in Geography and Rural Planning, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
2 Associate Professor of Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
3 Professor of Department of Geography, Faculty of Letters and Humanities, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction
Rural communities are continually exposed to natural hazards due to their direct dependence on the natural environment and their extensive reliance on agriculture. In many developing countries, agriculture constitutes the primary foundation of rural livelihoods; therefore, the occurrence of phenomena such as drought and frost can lead to wide ranging economic, social, and environmental consequences for these communities. Reduced agricultural production, damage to infrastructure, decline in household income, degradation of natural resources, and increasing livelihood insecurity are among the major impacts of such hazards. In recent years, climate change has intensified the vulnerability of agricultural systems by increasing the frequency and severity of extreme events. Among these hazards, drought is considered one of the most significant natural threats due to the breadth of its impacts, while frost represents a major risk to agricultural crops during critical growth stages. To reduce the impacts of these hazards, farmers employ various coping and adaptation strategies. Coping capacity refers to the ability of individuals and communities to anticipate, respond to, and recover from the impacts of hazards, and it is influenced by factors such as awareness, financial resources, education, institutional support, and local experience. In this regard, interaction between formal institutions and local farmers plays a crucial role in strengthening the resilience of rural communities. Neyshabur County has also experienced intensified droughts and frost events in recent years. Declining precipitation, reduction in cultivated areas, and decreasing agricultural production have posed serious challenges to the livelihoods of farmers in this region. Therefore, the present study aims to assess the coping capacity of rural farmers in the face of drought and frost hazards and to examine the individual and social factors influencing this capacity.
Materials and Methods
In terms of objective, this study is applied, and its methodology is descriptive-analytical. Data collection was conducted using a mixed-methods approach, incorporating both library and field research. In the library phase, theoretical foundations, literature reviews, and relevant indicators were extracted. In the field phase, data were gathered through questionnaires, direct observation, and semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data were analyzed using SPSS software. The statistical population consists of villages in the Sarvelayat district (Northern Neyshabur) in Khorasan Razavi province. This district includes four rural sub-districts: Marousak, Bar-Madan, Arbaghaei, and Sarvelayat. According to the 2016 census, it has a population of 14/664 individuals across 4/932 households. The selection of the studied villages was purposive, based on two primary criteria: the level of climatic risk (drought and frost) and the density of agricultural operators, specifically targeting villages with more than 100 active farmers. Therefore, a non-random sampling method was employed at this stage. To determine drought severity, drought stress maps from the National Meteorological Organization for the 12-month period ending in February 2025 (Bahman 1403) were utilized. The results indicated that over 70% of Neyshabur's area, particularly the Sarvelayat district, was experiencing "moderate" drought conditions. Given the significance of agriculture in this region, the selection of this study area is fully aligned with the research objectives. Using the Cochran formula for the 1/416 existing farmers with a margin of error of 0.06, the sample size was estimated at 224 participants, distributed across 10 selected villages. In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts in crisis management, agricultural extension, agronomy, and horticulture at the Neyshabur Jihad Agriculture Organization to identify institutional measures for enhancing farmers' coping capacity. The reliability of the research instrument was assessed using Cronbach's alpha (ranging from 0/7 to 0/9), indicating adequate internal consistency. Validity was also confirmed based on the repetition of indicators in similar studies.
Results and Discussion
The findings of the study revealed that farmers’ coping capacity across various dimensions—including social, economic, institutional–managerial, environmental–climatic, psychological, and technological—was below the average level, with the greatest weaknesses observed in the technological and institutional–managerial dimensions. A comparison of coping capacity for the two hazards, drought and frost, showed that mean capacity in certain dimensions, particularly economic and institutional–managerial, was higher when dealing with frost than drought. In addition, the statistical analyses indicated that individual and economic characteristics play a significant role in shaping coping capacity; younger farmers, those with higher levels of education, greater income, medium farming experience, and larger landholdings exhibited higher capacity to cope with climatic hazards. In contrast, the presence of secondary income sources did not show a significant effect on coping capacity. The ANOVA results further demonstrated that landholding size has a significant influence on farmers’ coping capacity for both drought and frost. Farmers with larger land areas benefit from greater financial resources, the ability to diversify cropping systems, and increased access to modern technologies, enabling them to exercise greater managerial flexibility during climatic crises. Moreover, the results of simple linear regression showed that risk perception plays a critical role in enhancing farmers’ coping capacity. Drought risk perception exhibited a correlation coefficient of 0.583 with an R² of 0/304, while frost risk perception showed a correlation of 0/507 with an R² of 0/257, both indicating positive and significant effects. Content analysis of the open-ended question also revealed that the most important challenges faced by farmers in dealing with climatic hazards include financial and credit constraints, limited access to facilities and infrastructure, lack of institutional support, inadequate training and technical knowledge, and market-related problems. These findings highlight that strengthening financial, institutional, and educational support systems can play a vital role in improving farmers' coping capacity in the face of drought and frost.

Conclusions
The findings of this study indicate that the coping capacity of farmers in Neyshabur County in relation to two major climatic hazards—drought and frost—is below the average level. This suggests that although farmers have a certain level of awareness regarding climate change, limited access to financial resources, technical equipment, and appropriate infrastructure reduces their ability to effectively cope with these hazards. In the case of frost events, many farmers continue to rely on traditional and short-term practices due to the high costs and lack of access to modern protective technologies. Similarly, in the context of drought, the heavy dependence on groundwater resources and the lack of modern irrigation systems have significantly reduced the resilience of the agricultural sector. The findings also show that risk perception plays an important role in enhancing farmers’ coping capacity. Increasing awareness and understanding of climatic hazards can improve planning and decision-making in crisis management. In addition, variables such as education level, age, income, farming experience, and landholding size were identified as important factors influencing farmers’ coping capacity. Comparison of the results of this study with previous research indicates that the challenges of coping with climatic hazards show similar patterns in many agricultural regions around the world. Economic constraints, weak infrastructure, limited access to specialized training, and insufficient institutional support are among the common factors that reduce farmers’ adaptive capacity. Overall, the results of this study suggest that enhancing farmers’ coping capacity in the face of drought and frost requires a comprehensive approach that, in addition to improving technical and irrigation infrastructure, emphasizes strengthening extension education, financial support mechanisms, and institutional policies in the agricultural sector.




کلیدواژه‌ها English

Drought
Frost
Coping Capacity
Farmers
Sarvelayat District
Neyshabur County
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