Introduction
Population retention in rural settlements is a critical component of spatial, social, and economic sustainability, particularly in border areas where demographic stability is also closely related to territorial resilience and security. This issue is especially important in Darmian County, South Khorasan Province, which shares a 70-km border with Afghanistan and has a predominantly rural population. Despite the growing literature on rural migration, limited attention has been paid to the simultaneous influence of economic, socio-cultural, physical–ecological, individual, and occupational factors on residents’ willingness to remain in rural settlements, especially in border regions. The present study therefore aimed to identify and explain the major determinants of population retention in rural settlements of Darmian County and to provide an empirical basis for place-sensitive rural development and population-retention policies.


Materials and Methods
The study was applied in terms of purpose and descriptive–analytical and survey-based in terms of research design. The statistical population consisted of residents aged over 18 years living in villages with at least 50 households in Darmian County. Based on Cochran’s formula, 180 respondents were initially selected through simple random sampling and proportional allocation across the selected villages. Data were collected using a researcher-made questionnaire whose face and content validity were assessed through expert consultation. Reliability was satisfactory, with Cronbach’s alpha coefficients ranging from 0.75 to 0.81. The questionnaire covered individual and occupational characteristics as well as three major dimensions affecting retention: economic (17 items), socio-cultural (25 items), and physical–ecological (7 items). Friedman test and Bonferroni-adjusted pairwise Wilcoxon tests were applied to compare the relative importance of the three dimensions. Binary logistic regression was subsequently employed to identify variables significantly associated with the probability of remaining in the village. Model fit was evaluated using the Hosmer–Lemeshow test, and explanatory power was assessed using Nagelkerke’s R².
Results and Discussion
The results revealed a relatively fragile demographic balance: 51.7% of respondents expressed willingness to continue living in their village, whereas 48.3% intended to leave. This nearly balanced distribution indicates that a substantial proportion of the rural population is potentially vulnerable to migration pressures. The Friedman test showed significant differences among the three dimensions (χ²=70.360, p<0.001). Socio-cultural factors ranked first (mean rank=2.52), followed by physical–ecological factors (1.80) and economic factors (1.68). Pairwise comparisons confirmed that socio-cultural factors were significantly more important than both economic and physical–ecological factors, whereas the latter two did not differ significantly. This finding highlights the central role of social capital, kinship ties, emotional attachment to place, and local belonging in shaping retention decisions. Binary logistic regression further demonstrated that age, agricultural income, and agricultural skills had positive and statistically significant effects on the probability of remaining in the village, while education and technical skills had significant negative effects. Length of residence, marital status, land ownership, gender, and employment status were not significant predictors. The model showed acceptable fit (Hosmer–Lemeshow p=0.492), explained approximately 38% of the variance in retention tendency, and correctly classified 75.6% of cases.

Conclusions
Population retention in Darmian’s rural settlements is a multidimensional process emerging from the interaction of economic capacities, human capital, social networks, place attachment, and environmental and spatial conditions. The dominance of socio-cultural factors demonstrates that retention policies cannot rely solely on income generation or infrastructure provision. At the same time, the significant effects of agricultural income and agricultural skills underline the importance of strengthening locally embedded livelihoods. Therefore, an effective policy framework should pursue opportunity-based retention through diversification of rural enterprises, agricultural value chains, processing and marketing activities, and market-oriented technical training. Policies should simultaneously strengthen kinship networks, social participation, trust, cultural cohesion, place attachment, road access, service availability, and environmental quality. In border areas such as Darmian, population retention should consequently be incorporated into regional development and territorial resilience policies rather than treated merely as a demographic objective. The ultimate goal should be to create conditions in which residents choose to remain because of economic opportunities, quality of life, social security, and attachment to place, rather than because they lack viable alternatives.