Introduction
Iran's nomadic community has experienced rapid social change, prompting policy debates about its future. Traditional nomadic life now faces significant challenges. As a result, "guided settlement" programs have been a priority to transition nomads to permanent settlements in the specified rural areas. The Qoli Beyglu water pumping station project, initiated in 2009 in Khoda Afarin County, aimed to settle nomads, create jobs, and boost incomes. After 13 years, evaluating this project's socio-economic impacts, particularly on reverse migration, is crucial. The literature shows that reverse migration is shaped by economic, infrastructural, environmental, and socio-cultural factors. However, few studies focus on nomadic communities' unique context. Thus, this study aims to identify factors driving reverse migration among nomads downstream in the rural areas of the Qoli Beyglu station, focusing on three winter settlements. The findings can inform future investments in water and nomadic development.
Materials and Methods
This research employs survival analysis (duration models) to analyze the factors influencing the reverse migration of nomads. This methodology was selected due to the time-dependent nature of the data and the presence of censoring (individuals who had not yet returned by the end of the study period). The primary dependent variable is the duration of the delay between out-migration from the area and subsequent return (reverse migration) following the commissioning of the Qoli Beyglu water pumping station. The analytical framework centers on the hazard function, which measures the instantaneous rate of the return event at time t, conditional on it not having occurred up to that time. This function depends on a set of explanatory variables, comprising two categories: time-invariant variables such as gender and ethnicity, and time-varying variables such as age, income level, employment status, and investment. The relationship between these variables and the hazard rate is typically modeled using functions like the logistic or proportional hazards. The required data were collected from 240 beneficiary households in the three target winter quarters (qishlaqs) downstream of the pumping station. Using Cochran's formula, a sample size of 123 households was determined and selected through proportional stratified random sampling from among the qishlaqs. The final information was obtained through face-to-face interviews and the completion of structured questionnaires.
Results and discussion
The study indicates that the implementation of the Qoli Beyglu water pumping station project has created significant economic and social impacts in the region and has particularly reinforced the phenomenon of reverse migration (the return of individuals to the area). From the beneficiaries' perspective, the project is largely evaluated as a successful investment in irrigated agriculture, job creation, and the permanent settlement of nomads. Furthermore, the project has been largely successful in curbing the inclination of the youth to out-migrate. Data analysis revealed that the average duration for individuals to return to the area was five years, with seventy percent of returnees coming back within the first five years following the station's commissioning. Based on the survival analysis model, the factors influencing the speed and propensity for reverse migration are: age, amount of agricultural land, having a non-agricultural income, perceived job security, and willingness to invest. Specifically, younger individuals, those owning more land, those who reported a higher sense of job security, and those showing a greater willingness to invest returned to the area more quickly and with a higher probability. Conversely, individuals who had a source of non-agricultural income at their destination of migration returned later.
Conclusion
The research findings indicate that the Qoli Beyglu water pumping station project has led to significant reverse migration by creating income and agricultural opportunities, with 70% of migrants returning to the area within the first five years. However, the findings reveal that the increase in income resulting from the project has not necessarily been accompanied by a sense of sustainable job security. To consolidate this return trend and ensure settlement stability, it is recommended that future policy focus primarily on creating job diversity and strengthening sustainable job security in the region. This approach would enhance incentives for local investment while mitigating the push factors for migration.