Abstract
Introduction
National studies reveal that millions of Iranians living in rural settlements still lack adequate transport infrastructure, including standard road networks. This poor connectivity, compounded by limited market and public-service access, erodes rural welfare, heightens socio-economic vulnerability, and undermines the competitiveness of villages relative to cities. Agricultural transport—long overlooked in rural and agrarian policies—has thus become a critical issue. West Azerbaijan, an agricultural powerhouse employing over 230 000 people, is pivotal to Iran’s food supply. Strengthening its agricultural-transport infrastructure is essential for securing supply chains, cutting post-harvest losses, and boosting producers’ competitiveness. The province’s connectivity roadmap, shaped by regional needs and public demand, prioritizes upgrading and widening border-bound roads to foster cross-border trade, transit, and economic synergy. Equipping road-maintenance depots, supporting road-service personnel, and advancing dedicated agri-logistics can act as powerful drivers of provincial development. Given West Azerbaijan’s agricultural prominence and mounting transport inefficiencies, this study employs foresight methods to craft robust scenarios that counter agricultural-product transport challenges, enabling strategic planning and greater economic resilience in rural areas.
Materials and Methods
This quantitative, applied study collected survey data via questionnaires from 30 transport, agriculture and rural-development experts. Using a descriptive-analytical design, data were analysed in Scenario Wizard through cross-impact analysis. Steps comprised defining events/trends, constructing impact matrices, estimating probabilities, running consistency loops and final cross-impact evaluation. The foresight framework covers four dimensions: objectives, tools, approaches and context. The research aims to generate scenario-based strategies for improving agricultural-product transport in West Azerbaijan.
Results & Discussion
In the process of optimizing agricultural product transportation, identifying key influencing factors is crucial. Transportation, as a vital link in the food supply chain, plays an important role in enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and improving product quality. This study identified and examined 13 critical components impacting the future of agricultural transportation in West Azerbaijan province Among these, the assumption of access to smooth and suitable roads emerged as one of the strongest and most significant premises in scenario development. The importance of this factor lies in its ability to reduce transportation costs, increase speed, and improve safety during product transit. This is especially critical for rural and agricultural areas where timely delivery of perishable products is essential. Given the profound influence of transportation infrastructure on the entire supply chain, many studies emphasize this assumption as a key driver for the socio-economic development of rural communities. Poor road infrastructure leads to higher transportation costs and reduces the competitiveness of agricultural products in markets. Access to appropriate freight vehicles, while recognized as important, showed lower compatibility compared to road infrastructure. A modern, well-equipped fleet can increase productivity, lower costs, and maintain product quality during transit. However, in some regions, especially less developed or rural areas, lack of resources and high costs limit the availability of suitable vehicles. This directly affects transportation speed and quality, sometimes increasing product wastage.
The difference in robustness between these two assumptions indicates that although access to freight vehicles is important, adequate road infrastructure has a far stronger impact on overall transportation efficiency. Good roads play a foundational role in reducing transit time and costs, and can partly compensate for vehicle shortages. Therefore, prioritizing road quality improvement and expanding transportation networks in rural and agricultural regions can lead to more sustainable and effective transportation systems. Challenges limiting the availability of suitable freight vehicles include high acquisition and maintenance costs, infrastructure-vehicle mismatches, and insufficient demand due to low production volume or market access. Despite its significance, this assumption is less robust due to these barriers. In conclusion, while access to proper freight vehicles remains key, investment in road infrastructure should take precedence, especially where resources are limited. Future scenarios should focus on enhancing road networks and employing regional transport technologies as strategies to overcome vehicle availability constraints and improve agricultural product transportation efficiency.
Conclusions
In the process of optimizing agricultural product transportation, identifying key influencing factors is of great importance. Transportation, as a critical link in the food supply chain, plays a vital role in improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing product quality. This study identified and examined 13 key factors affecting the future of agricultural transportation. Access to smooth and suitable roads is one of the strongest and most significant assumptions in transportation development scenarios. Quality roads reduce transportation costs, increase speed, and improve safety—especially crucial for rural areas where timely delivery of perishable products is essential. Poor road infrastructure can increase costs and reduce product competitiveness in the market. On the other hand, access to appropriate freight vehicles, although important, shows lower compatibility compared to road infrastructure. A modern and well-equipped fleet can increase productivity, reduce costs, and preserve product quality during transit. However, due to high costs, limited resources, and mismatches with infrastructure, many regions lack suitable fleets, which negatively impacts transportation speed and quality and leads to higher product losses. Analysis indicates that suitable road infrastructure has a stronger impact on overall transportation efficiency, and good roads can partially compensate for vehicle shortages. Therefore, improving road quality and expanding transportation networks in rural and agricultural areas should be prioritized.
Factors reducing the compatibility of the freight vehicle assumption include high acquisition and maintenance costs, infrastructure-vehicle mismatches, and low demand due to limited production volume or market access. Accordingly, investing in road infrastructure and regional transportation technologies presents more effective solutions to overcome fleet limitations. In conclusion, while access to proper freight vehicles remains important, prioritizing road infrastructure development and leveraging modern transport technologies will yield more sustainable and efficient agricultural product transportation in future scenarios.