شناسایی پیشران‌های توسعه گردشگری روستایی استان گیلان با رویکرد آینده‌پژوهی

Introduction
Village Tourism cannot be considered as a general solution for all issues and problems, but it can be considered as one of the factors that has a significant economic effect. This type of tourism is one of the methods that may have important economic outcomes when it can also slow down the process of evacuation of the villages and reduce the migration of the rural population. Today, rural tourism plays an important role in the socio-economic development of villages and can also play an important role in economic independence, empowering villagers and creating new job opportunities. The development of rural tourism covers all aspects of rural development programs, and these areas are considered as one of the most important goals of rural tourism development. Besides, in rural tourism, rural resources such as culture and social traditions, historical buildings, monuments and symbols, weather conditions, which cannot be used for other economic activities, have been of great use. Tourism in Gilan province has a share of approximately 30% in the gross domestic product of Gilan. This province had about 10 million passengers in 2018. According to the opinions of experts in the province and based on the very high capabilities in the field of tourism, about 90% of employment in Gilan province can be in the tourism sector, because rural tourism in this province, due to the large number of rural areas, has the potential of tourism and ecotourism as the dominant spatial pattern. In the meantime, considering the identification of effective drivers for the development of tourism, a big step can be taken for the development of this industry in Gilan province. In fact, according to the mentioned cases, this research seeks to answer the question, what are the drivers that affect the rural tourism situation in Gilan province?
Materials and Methods
The research is practical in terms of purpose, and in terms of nature, based on the new methods of future research, is analytical and exploratory and is fulfilled through a combination of quantitative and qualitative models. Data needed are collected via a documentary and library research. Qualitative data has been used with an open questionnaire and through interviews with experts and review of documents and quantitative data.
The geographical area of this research is Gilan province and the time area of the research is the Fall and Winter of 2022. This research has been prepared numerically and through the weighting of Delphi questionnaires. Based on this, in the first step, the influential indicators and components in this area in different dimensions (socio-cultural, economic, planning and management, infrastructural and service and natural factors) have been gathered through the study of documents and opinions of the experts. After collecting the data and identifying the primary variables in the framework of the Delphi model, 40 questionnaires were distributed exclusively among executive and academic elites (the research statistical community), who had sufficient expertise and experience in tourism issues, and they were asked to rate the variables in the framework of the cross-effects matrix, based on their leaving and receiving impacts with numbers in the range of 0 to 3 (with "0" as no influence, "1" as a weak influence. "2" a moderate impact, "3" meaning high impact, and "P" a potential direct and indirect impact). Then the scores were entered in the cross matrix to measure the influence and effectiveness (direct and indirect) of each of the factors and their sub-group variables with other factors in the framework of MikMak forecasting software, while by specifying the key driving forces, the necessary diagrams can be obtained as output..
Results and Discussion
In order to identify the important indicators in the development of the tourism industry in Gilan province, 66 indicators were identified and made available to the experts and  executive managers of the province through the investigation of the conducted researches and through tourism experts and executive bodies themselves. Among the 66 indicators, finally 51 indicators were refined and given to the elites, expert managers and specialists of the province who were involved in the tourism industry for re-examination. Finally, the key factors of 4 sections and 51 key indicators with a matrix width of 51*51 were adjusted based on the analysis of cross effects.
The results of the research based on the calculations made in the MikMaK software indicate that the selected factors have influenced each other in more than 92 percent of cases. Out of a total of 2167 evaluable matrix relationships, 354 relationships, equivalent to 14%, have a cross effect of 3, that is, the indicators have influenced each other. 628 relationships equal to 25% had cross effects of 2, that is, they had a reinforcing role. 1101 relations, equivalent to 44%, have cross effects of 1, which means they have more influence on other indicators. 434 relationships, equivalent to 17% of cross-effects, neither left influence upon the other nor were influenced by that. The indicator of the formation of a research core in universities and the management of this core by expert and experienced professors who have the knowledge of this field has had the greatest impact on other factors. In addition to this factor, the other 10 indicators that have won the next rank are: the awareness and interest of officials and managers in tourism development, the possibility of attracting private sector managers, the existence of Hyrkan forests, the comprehensive tourism plan, and the existence of a wetland, the existence of beaches, the existence of diverse mountainous areas, suitable natural landscapes, the existence of permanent springs and rivers, and the existence of the field of tourism in Gilan University. Based on the software results regarding the effects of factors upon each other, the existence of Hyrkan forests, the existence of tourism field in Gilan University, the participation of village people, the cultural diversity of customs, the existence of traditional rural texture, flora and fauna, the existence of springs. and permanent rivers, the awareness of the local community and tourists, and the employment of native and non-native people in key jobs, have been ranked from one to ten, respectively.
Conclusions
In the conclusion of the research, it can be said that the success in achieving the all-round goals of the future of rural tourism in Gilan province depends on the effective interaction between key factors. One of the most important results of the research is that by using the identified factors and taking into account their priority and influence on each other, it is possible to measure the future sustainability of tourism development with an emphasis on the local community of Gilan province and to compile and implement the solutions maintaining the favorable situation or changing the unfavorable situation in different dimensions. Sufficient attention from the planners, policy makers and decision makers to the influencing factors on the explanation of the future vision of tourism, prioritizing and considering the relationships on each other, the necessary platforms for the realization and development and development will place tourism destinations in a way that guarantees balance and long-term sustainability in all dimensions and levels.