سنجش پیامدهای خشکسالی و تأثیر آنها بر نیت مهاجرت جوانان روستایی شهرستان همدان

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانش‌آموخته کارشناسی ارشد توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

2 دانشیار گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

3 استادیار گروه ترویج، ارتباطات و توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران.

چکیده

خشکسالی‌های اخیر در ایران، با تأثیرگذاری بر بخش کشاورزی و روستایی کشور، واکنش‏های گوناگون روستاییان را در پی داشته است؛ افزایش احتمال مهاجرت روستاییان به‌ویژه جوانان روستایی یکی از همین واکنش‏هاست. سنجش تأثیرات خشکسالی بر نیت مهاجرت جوانان روستایی می‌تواند شناخت بهتری برای سیاست‌گذاران و برنامه‌ریزان حوزه روستایی و کشاورزی فراهم کند. جامعه آماری تحقیق توصیفی- همبستگی حاضر کلیه جوانان روستایی در سنین 15 تا 29 سال ساکن شهرستان همدان بودند که از آن میان، با استفاده از رابطة نمونه‌گیری کوکران، 237 نفر به‌عنوان حجم نمونه مشخص و از طریق روش نمونه‌گیری چندمرحله‌ای تصادفی انتخاب شدند. ابزار تحقیق پرسشنامه‌ای متشکل از چند بخش بود که روایی آن، با استفاده از نظرات متخصصان و پایایی آن، با انجام مطالعه مقدماتی و محاسبه آلفای کرونباخ (85/0) برای شاخص‌ ترکیبی پیامدهای خشکسالی، تأیید شد. نتایج نشان داد که 2/53 درصد جوانان روستایی قصد دارند در یک یا دو سال آینده از روستا مهاجرت کنند و قصد مهاجرت 8/63 درصد جوانان طی چند سال آینده در حد متوسط به بالاست؛ همچنین، به باور نود درصد جوانان روستایی، پیامدهای مختلف خشکسالی در حد متوسط و بالاست. تحلیل همبستگی نشان داد که نیت مهاجرت جوانان با متغیرهای پیامدهای خشکسالی، میزان مالکیت زمین در شهر، تعداد افراد خانوار و تحصیلات آنها رابطه مثبت و معنی‌دار و اما با متغیرهای نگرش نسبت به کشاورزی، کنترل رفتاری و سن رابطه منفی و معنی‌دار دارد؛ همچنین، بر پایه نتایج تحلیل رگرسیون خطی چندگانة گام‌به‌گام، پنج متغیر نگرش نسبت به کشاورزی، سطح تحصیلات، کنترل رفتاری، میزان پیامدهای خشکسالی و سن 7/27 درصد واریانس نیت مهاجرت جوانان روستایی را تبیین می‌کنند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Measuring the Drought Implications and Their Impact on Rural Youth Intention toward Migration in Hamedan County of Iran

نویسندگان [English]

  • M. Poureghbali 1
  • A. Shams 2
  • A. Gheidi 3
1 MSc Graduate in Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.
3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran
چکیده [English]

Recent droughts in Iran have affected the agricultural and rural sector, followed by different response among rural people of the country. Increasing the likelihood of rural youth migration to cities is one of their reactions in this regard. Measuring the impact of drought on the rural youth migration intentions can provide better insights for rural and agricultural policymakers and planners. The statistical population of this descriptive correlational study included all the rural youth aged 15 to 29 in Hamadan County of Iran. Using Cochran sampling formula, 237 young people were detemined as the sample size and selected in a multistage randomized sampling method. The research instrument was a questionnare with several sections, the validity and reliability of which were respectively confirmed by expert opinions and a pilot study with Cronbach's alpha calculation (0.85) for the composite index. The results showed that 53.2 percent of the rural youth intended to migrate within the next one or two years; also, the migration intention of 63.8 percent of them in next few years was at a moderate to high level; the sane extent stated by ninety percent of the rural youth as the implications of drought for their livelihoods. Correlation analysis indicated the rural youth migration intention’s significantly positive relations with the variables of drought implications, land ownership, number of household nenbers and their education as well as its significantly negative relations with the variables of the rural youth’s behavioural control, attitude toward agriculture and age. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis also showed that the five variables including attitude toward agriculture, educational level, behavioral control, drought implications and age explained 27.7 percent of variance of the rural youth migration intention.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Climate change
  • drought
  • rural youth
  • Migration Intention
  • Hamedan (County)
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