تحلیل اثرات اقتصادی و اجتماعی خشکسالی بر جوامع روستایی شهرستان سمنان

نوع مقاله: مقاله پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانش‏آموختة کارشناسی ارشد جامعه‏شناسی و پژوهشگر مؤسسة پژوهش‏های برنامه‌ریزی، اقتصاد کشاورزی و توسعة روستایی

چکیده

هدف تحقیق حاضر تحلیل اثرات اقتصادی و اجتماعی خشکسالی بر جوامع روستایی شهرستان سمنان بود. تحقیق از نوع توصیفی‌ـ تحلیلی بوده و جامعة آماری آن را سرپرستان خانوارها در روستاهای شهرستان سمنان تشکیل می‌دادند که با استفاده از رابطة کوکران و روش نمونه‌گیری تصادفی طبقه‌ای، تعداد 340 نفر از آنها به‏صورت کاملاً تصادفی انتخاب شدند. نتایج تحلیل عاملی اکتشافی نشان داد که چهار عامل «بحران معیشت»، «رکود تولید و تضعیف کشاورزی»، «فرهنگی و روان‏شناختی»، و «اجتماعی و مشارکتی» در مجموع 812/55 درصد از تغییرات اثرات اقتصادی و اجتماعی خشکسالی بر جوامع روستایی شهرستان سمنان را تبیین می‌کنند. بر اساس یافته‌های پژوهش، پیشنهادهایی از جمله اعطای وام‏های بلاعوض و یا کم‏بهره در راستای مدیریت و کاهش پیامدهای منفی رکود تولید و تضعیف کشاورزی، استفاده از شبکة آبیاری تحت فشار و توجه بیشتر دولت به صندوق بیمه محصولات کشاورزی، بهره‏گیری از مشارکت روستاییان در مدیریت خشکسالی، و شرکت روستاییان در برنامه‏های آموزشی و ترویجی ارائه شد.

کلیدواژه‌ها


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analyzing the Economic and Social Effects of Drought on Rural Communities in Semnan County of Iran

نویسنده [English]

  • Safoura KARIMI
MA Graduate in Sociology and Researcher of Agricultural Planning, Economics, and Rural Development Research Institute (APERDRI). Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Droughts, as the most complex natural disasters, affect the lives of many rural inhabitants with a farm-dependent economy. This study aimed at analyzing the economic and social effects of drought on rural communities in Semnan County of Iran. It was a descriptive-analytic research. Statistical population included the heads of households in villages of the County; and accordingly, the sample size was estimated 340 people through Cochran formula. The sampling was conducted in a stratified sampling method. The study was mainly conducted through a questionnaire, the validity of which was obtained by using a panel of experts and masters in agriculture, and its reliability was confirmed by a pre-test through the Cronbach's alpha (0.946). According to the results of exploratory factor analysis, the content of economic and social effects of drought was mainly categorized into four components, including: livelihood crisis, production stagnation and weakened agriculture, cultural and psychological, and social and participatory factors that explain about 55.812 percent of the variations in economic and social effects of drought. Based on the study findings, some recommendations were made to reduce the economic and social effects of drought on the studied rural community and to improve policy making as well as the management of this phenomenon.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Economic effects
  • Social Effects
  • Drought
  • exploratory factor analysis
  • Semnan (County)
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