روستا و توسعه

روستا و توسعه

تحلیل راهبردی استراتژی­ های بهینه معیشت پایدار در شرایط خشکسالی به ­منظور مقابله با مهاجرت (مطالعه موردی: منطقه سیستان)

نوع مقاله : مقاله پژوهشی

نویسندگان
محدثه میر 1
حمید محمدی 2
1 دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد منابع طبیعی و محیط زیست، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران.
2 دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه زابل، زابل، ایران.
10.30490/rvt.2025.367503.1691
چکیده
شغل غالب جوامع ­محلی منطقه سیستان کشاورزی، دامداری و صیادی است. با توجه به وابستگی فعالیت­ های اقتصادی به آبگیری تالاب بین ­المللی ­هامون، خشکسالی­ های مداوم منجر به رکود فعالیت­ های اقتصادی شده است. هدف این تحقیق، تحلیل راهبردی انتخاب و اولویت­ بندی استراتژی بهینه معیشت ­پایدار منطقه سیستان است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق را جوامع ­محلی منطقه سیستان تشکیل داده که با استفاده از پرسش­نامه­ و با روش طبقه­ بندی شده، تعداد ۲۵۰ نفر از جوامع­ محلی و ۵۰ نفر از کارشناسان خبره در منطقه انتخاب شدند. بررسی و تحلیل داده ­ها و شناسایی راهبردهای مناسب با مدل SWOT و اولویت­ بندی استراتژی­ های انتخاب شده نیز با بهره­ گیری از مدل QSPM انجام شد. نتایج بررسی نقاط قوت جوامع ­محلی نشان داد که وجود دانش بومی روستاییان در ارتباط با راه­های تأمین معیشت پایدار با توجه به موقعیت منطقه با امتیاز 0/218 در اولویت قرار دارد. این در حالی است که ازنظر کارشناسان، وجود نیروی انسانی بومی و علاقه ­مند با امتیاز 0/208 در اولویت قرار دارد. بررسی نقاط ضعف نیز بیانگر آن است که جوامع ­محلی، خشکسالی را با امتیاز 0/065 و کارشناسان، خشکسالی را با امتیاز 0/104 در اولویت قرار داده­اند. همچنین ارزیابی و تحلیل فرصت­ ها نشان داد که جوامع­ محلی، ارائه تسهیلات اعتباری و وام به ­منظور رونق دامداری و دامپروری را با امتیاز 0/224 در اولویت قرار داده و وجود نیروی انسانی تحصیل­ کرده با امتیاز 0/219 در اولویت کارشناسان قرار دارد. نتایج بررسی تهدیدها نیز مؤید آن است که تشدید خشکسالی­ های مداوم از دیدگاه جوامع­ محلی با امتیاز 0/076 و از دیدگاه کارشناسان با امتیاز 0/059 در اولویت قرار دارد. مطابق نتایج ماتریس SWOT، راهبرد SO انتخاب شد و طبق نتایج ماتریس QSPM، توجه بخش دولتی و مسئولان مربوط به توسعه زیرساخت­ های اقتصادی در منطقه، ارائه تسهیلات و وام­ های دولتی به بخش کشاورزی، دامداری و سایر موارد و همچنین ارائه تسهیلات به زنان خانه­ دار به­ منظور توسعه و گسترش فعالیت­ های اقتصادی کوچک­ مقیاس و متوسط (مثل صنایع­ دستی، سوزن­ دوزی، خیاطی و سایر موارد) و تدوین و برنامه ریزی به­ منظور تنوع معیشتی متناسب با ظرفیت­ های منطقه در اولویت ­های اول تا سوم هر دو گروه قرار دارد.
کلیدواژه‌ها
خشکسالی
معیشت پایدار
فعالیت­های اقتصادی
سیستان
مدلSWOT- QSPM .
موضوعات

عنوان مقاله English

Strategic Analysis of Optimal Sustainable Livelihood Strategies in Acute Drought Conditions in Order to Prevent Migration (Case Study: Sistan Region)

نویسندگان English

.M Mir 1
H. Mohammadi 2
1 Ph.D. Candidate in Natural Resources and Environmental Economics, Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.
2 Associate Professor Department of Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran.
چکیده English

Introduction
The predominant occupation of villagers in Sistan has been agriculture, animal husbandry, and fishing. Given the dependence of economic activities on the water inflow of the Hamoon International Wetland, continuous droughts have led to the stagnation of economic activities. The purpose of this research is a strategic analysis of the selection and prioritization of the optimal sustainable livelihood strategy in the Sistan region.
Materials and Methods
The SWOT-QSPM model was used to analyze strategic choices and prioritize optimal sustainable livelihood strategies in the Sistan region. Data collection was carried out using a questionnaire using a classified method from a statistical population of 250 local community members and 50 experts. The data and appropriate strategies were reviewed using the SWOT model, and the selected strategies were prioritized using the QSPM model.
Results and Discussion
The results showed that strengths; local communities prioritized the existence of indigenous knowledge of villagers about ways to secure sustainable livelihoods considering the location of the region with a score of 0.218, and experts prioritized the existence of indigenous and interested human resources with a score of 0.208. Analysis of weaknesses showed that local communities prioritized drought with a score of 0.065 and drought experts prioritized it with a score of 0.104. Analysis of opportunities showed that local communities prioritized the provision of credit facilities and loans to promote livestock and animal husbandry with a score of 0.224 and the existence of educated human resources with a score of 0.219. The results of threats showed that the intensification of persistent droughts with a score of 0.076 from the perspective of local communities and with a score of 0.059 from the perspective of experts. According to the SWOT matrix, the SO strategy was selected. According to the QSPM matrix, the attention of the government sector and relevant officials to the development of economic infrastructure in the region, providing government facilities and loans to the agricultural, livestock, etc. sectors, as well as providing facilities to housewives in order to develop and expand small and medium-scale economic activities, and formulating and planning for livelihood diversification in line with the capacities of the region, are among the first to third priorities of both groups.
Conclusions
In Sistan, due to the intensification of droughts, most economic activities are on the verge of destruction. In addition, the intensification of dust storms has affected the lives and health of local communities. Therefore, in the current situation, if local communities do not have a sustainable livelihood, the tendency to migrate increases. Therefore, in order to prevent migration, it is necessary to develop and plan for resilience and secure a sustainable livelihood. According to the results of this research, by developing; the attention of the relevant government sector to the development of economic infrastructure in the region, providing government facilities and loans to the agricultural, livestock, etc. sectors, as well as providing facilities to housewives in order to develop and expand small and medium-scale economic activities, developing and planning for livelihood diversification in accordance with the capacities of the region, its possible to create suitable conditions for local communities and prevent migration.

کلیدواژه‌ها English

Drought
Sustainable Livelihood
Economic Activities
Sistan
Model SWOT- QSPM
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