The Future Perspective of Rural Population and Challenges of Sustainable Development Management in Iran

Forecasting the dynamics and future changes of rural population is considered as the most important issue in the process of sustainable rural development. The present study is an attempt to forecast the future changes of rural population during the period 2006-2031. Also, it examines the consequences of these changes. The results indicate that the proportion of rural settlements would decline from 31.4 percent in 2006 to 22.5 in 2031. The results of forecast indicate several main characteristics of rural population in the 2031 horizon: fertility reduction, life expectancy improvement, absolute and relative decline in rural population, increase in the supply of rural labour, and finally the aging of rural population. The present study proposes the improvement of labour productivity and rural households’ income level as remedies to deal with the increase in labour supply and aging of rural population in the 2031 horizon.