Measuring the Drought Implications and Their Impact on Rural Youth Intention toward Migration in Hamedan County of Iran

Document Type : Original Article


1 MSc Graduate in Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

2 Associate Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran.

3 Assistant Professor, Department of Agricultural Extension, Communication and Rural Development, University of Zanjan, Zanjan, Iran


Recent droughts in Iran have affected the agricultural and rural sector, followed by different response among rural people of the country. Increasing the likelihood of rural youth migration to cities is one of their reactions in this regard. Measuring the impact of drought on the rural youth migration intentions can provide better insights for rural and agricultural policymakers and planners. The statistical population of this descriptive correlational study included all the rural youth aged 15 to 29 in Hamadan County of Iran. Using Cochran sampling formula, 237 young people were detemined as the sample size and selected in a multistage randomized sampling method. The research instrument was a questionnare with several sections, the validity and reliability of which were respectively confirmed by expert opinions and a pilot study with Cronbach's alpha calculation (0.85) for the composite index. The results showed that 53.2 percent of the rural youth intended to migrate within the next one or two years; also, the migration intention of 63.8 percent of them in next few years was at a moderate to high level; the sane extent stated by ninety percent of the rural youth as the implications of drought for their livelihoods. Correlation analysis indicated the rural youth migration intention’s significantly positive relations with the variables of drought implications, land ownership, number of household nenbers and their education as well as its significantly negative relations with the variables of the rural youth’s behavioural control, attitude toward agriculture and age. Stepwise multiple linear regression analysis also showed that the five variables including attitude toward agriculture, educational level, behavioral control, drought implications and age explained 27.7 percent of variance of the rural youth migration intention.


Main Subjects

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