Village and Development

Village and Development

Determinants of Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Iran with Emphasis on the Agricultural Sector

Document Type : Original Article

Authors
1 Associate Professor of Agricultural Economics, College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
2 Assistant Professor of Agricultural Economics, Darab College of Agriculture and Natural Resources, Shiraz University, Shiraz, Iran.
Abstract
Abstract
Introduction
Global warming has been a significant issue in recent decades, with greenhouse gas emissions, particularly carbon dioxide, being a major contributor to climate change. Understanding the factors influencing carbon dioxide emissions is crucial for developing effective strategies to mitigate greenhouse gases and address global warming. This study aims to identify the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions, focusing on the agricultural sector.
Materials and Methods
Data from 1990 to 2022 were collected for analysis. Stationarity of the variables was assessed, and short-term and long-term patterns were estimated using the ARDL model.
Results and Discussion
The study found that crop, livestock, and forest production, as well as energy consumption and population growth, have a significant positive impact on carbon dioxide emissions in both the short and long term. While temperature does not affect emissions in the short term, an increase in temperature over the long term can lead to a reduction in emissions. Higher temperatures may stimulate environmental policies, technological advancements, and changes in consumer behavior, resulting in lower emissions. Additionally, increased rainfall is associated with reduced carbon dioxide emissions in both the short and long term.
Conclusions
The findings highlight the importance of climate and water resources in managing greenhouse gas emissions and promoting sustainable development in Iran. To reduce carbon dioxide emissions, enhancing production efficiency in crop, livestock, and forestry sectors through modern and low-carbon technologies is recommended. Optimizing energy consumption, promoting renewable energy sources, and implementing population planning strategies can also help mitigate emissions. Supporting environmental policies, raising public awareness about climate change, and conserving water resources are essential for reducing emissions. Sustainable agricultural practices and efficient use of atmospheric precipitation are key for agricultural development.
Keywords

Subjects


  1. Ashena, M., & Hosseinabadi, H. (2019). Evaluating the factors affecting changes in carbon dioxide emissions in Iran with emphasis on the role of urbanization; decomposition analysis method. Geography and Environmental Hazards, 9(2), 145-163.‎ (In Persian)
  2. Ata, B., Pakrooh, P. & Pénzes, J. (2023). Driving factors of energy related CO2 emissions at a regional level in the residential sector of Iran. Scientific Reports, 13(1), 17598. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-44975-x.
  3. Casey, G. & Galor, O. (2016). Population growth and carbon emissions (No. w22885). National Bureau of Economic Research. https://doi.org/10.3386/w22885.
  4. Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V. & House, J.I. (2014). Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles. In Climate change 2013: The physical science basis. contribution of working group i to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change change (pp. 465-570). Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/ 10.1017/CBO9781107415324.015.
  5. Filimonova, I.V., Provornaya, I.V. & Leont'eva, V.G. (2023). Assessment of factors affecting the level of carbon dioxide emissions. https://doi.org/10.24891/ea.22.10.1888.
  6. Hur, S.J, Kim, J.M, Yim, D.G., Yoon, Y., Lee, S.S. & Jo, C. (2023). Impact of livestock industry on climate change: Case Study in South Korea—A review. Animal bioscience, 37(3), 405. https://doi.org/10.5713/ab.23.0256
  7. (2022). Climate change 2022: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. contribution of working group ii to the sixth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press. Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2.
  8. Ivanyuk, V., Shuvalov, K,, Mikhaylov, A., Akhobadze, G., Kachalov, D. & Martynova, A. (2024). Modelling of carbon dioxide emission influencing factors. In 2024 17th international conference on management of large-scale system development (MLSD) (pp. 1-4). IEEE. https://doi.org/1109/MLSD61779.2024.10739464
  9. Jiang, L., Yang, L., Wu, Q. & Zhang, X. (2024). How does extreme heat affect carbon emission intensity? Evidence from county-level data in China. Economic Modelling, 139, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econmod.2024.106814.
  10. Karimi Alavijeh, N., Salehnia, N., Salehnia, N. & Koengkan, M. (2023). The effects of agricultural development on CO2 emissions: Empirical evidence from the most populous developing countries. Environment, Development and Sustainability, 25(10), 12011-12031. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10668-022-02567-1.
  11. Keshavarzian, M., & Tabatabaienasab, Z. (2022). The effects of electricity consumption on CO2 emissions in Iran. Technology and Economics of Smart Grids and Sustainable Energy, 7(1), 1-8. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40866-022-00140-3.
  12. Lee, C.C., & Zhao, Y.N. (2023). Heterogeneity analysis of factors influencing CO2 emissions: the role of human capital, urbanization, and FDI. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 185, 113644. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2023.113644.
  13. Makutėnienė, D., Perkumienė, D. & Makutėnas, V. (2022). Logarithmic mean divisia index decomposition based on Kaya identity of GHG emissions from agricultural sector in Baltic states. Energies, 15(3), 1195. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15031195.
  14. Muhammad, B., Khan, M.K., Khan, M.I. & Khan, S. (2021). Impact of foreign direct investment, natural resources, renewable energy consumption, and economic growth on environmental degradation: Evidence from BRICS, developing, developed and global countries. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 28, 21789-21798. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-12084-1
  15. Nguyen, C.P., Le, T.H., Schinckus, C. & Su, T.D. (2021). Determinants of agricultural emissions: Panel data evidence from a global sample. Environment and Development Economics, 26(2), 109-130.
  16. Rehman, A., Ma, H., Ahmad, M., Irfan, M., Traore, O. & Chandio, A.A. (2021). Towards environmental Sustainability: Devolving the influence of carbon dioxide emission to population growth, climate change, Forestry, livestock and crops production in Pakistan. Ecological indicators, 125, 107460.
  17. Rehman, A., Ulucak, R., Ma, H., Ding, J. & Hua, J. (2024). The interconnectedness of land–crops–livestock and environmental quality in emerging Asian economies: Challenges of agriculturalization and carbonization. Land, 13(10), 1570. https://doi.org/10.3390/land13101570.
  18. Roth, G.A., Abate, D., Abate, K.H., Abay, S.M., Abbafati, C., Abbasi, N. & Borschmann, R. (2018). Global, regional, and national age-sex-specific mortality for 282 causes of death in 195 countries and territories, 1980–(2017): A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017. The lancet, 392(10159), 1736-1788. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(18)32203-7.
  19. A., Kouchaki-Penchah, H. & Nabavi-Pelesaraei, A. (2015). Investigation of life cycle assessment of hazelnut production in Guilan province of IR Iran based on orchards size levels. In Biological Forum (Vol. 7, No. 1, p. 807). Research Trend.
  20. Saribayevich, X.F., Sariyevich, X.X., Davlatov, S., Turobova, H. & Ruziyev, S. (2024). Analysis of factors affecting CO2 emissions: In the case of Uzbekistan. International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, 14(4), 207-215. https://doi.org/10.32479/ijeep.16193.
  21. Soheili-Fard, F., & Kouchaki-Penchah, H. (2015). Assessing environmental burdens of sugar beet production in East Azerbaijan province of IR Iran based on farms size levels. International Journal of Farming and Allied Sciences, 4(5), 489-495.
  22. Van der Werf, G.R., Morton, D.C., DeFries, R.S., Olivier, J.G., Kasibhatla, P.S., Jackson, R.B. & Randerson, J.T. (2009). CO2 emissions from forest loss. Nature Geoscience, 2(11), 737-738. https://doi.org/1038/ngeo671.
  23. (2024). Available at: Whttps://data.worldbank.org/indicator.
  24. Yang, F. (2024). Research on factors affecting carbon emission. International Journal of Natural Resources and Environmental Studies, 2(2), 168-178. https://doi.org/10.62051/ijnres.v2n2.19.
  25. Yang, Y., & Li, D. (2024). Analysis of factors affecting carbon emissions based on gray correlation analysis. Frontiers in Sustainable Development, 4(3), 76-81. https://doi.org/10.54691/41rt3m41.
  26. Yousefi, M., Damghani, A.M. & Khoramivafa, M. (2014). Energy consumption, greenhouse gas emissions and assessment of sustainability index in corn agroecosystems of Iran. Science of the Total Environment, 493, 330-335. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2014.06.004.
  27. Ziaei, S. (2019). Investigating the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions in selected OECD countries using the panel data model. Journal of Natural Environment, 72(3), 339-352.‎ (In Persian)